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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season in spectacular form.

Even though this doesn't represent his best start to a season - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in two seasons ago and ten in the previous campaign - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties renders it particularly impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Certainly, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the honor so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, equally significant, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the modest opening his typical competitors for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

This isn't a statistic haphazardly selected by statistical experts, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from regular situations, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to convert than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than anyone else in the competition, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of opportunities that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to every other footballer.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more open-play attempts at this point in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this term. His efforts have had an xG value of an average of 0.27.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - because of a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the opening of last term.

Essentially, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been significantly more straightforward to convert from in a reorganised City team than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Previous Season Assessment

Starting a season so powerfully is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had registered ten strikes - four more than any other player and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, seven more than the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the quietest start to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the additional ten attackers collectively so far.

Be it because of injuries - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European Golden Shoe that is given to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's premier competitions?

That competition is significantly tighter at this initial phase because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in excellent condition, with 11 and nine goals correspondingly.

The circumstance Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the greatest expected goals of the three without having taken any spot-kicks renders him the likely winner.

However, because the two continental superstars are among the finest finishers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.